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KENTUCKY DERBY — May 1

The dynamic on this one has changed a bit since we knew there was going to be a sloppy track. And when the favored Eskendereya, who might have destroyed this field, pulled out with a leg injury, that opened the race up a bit.
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We’re going to use AWESOME ACT, a horse brought up on turf that won the Gotham Stakes in his first race on dirt, and lost a shoe in the process of laboring to a third-place finish in the Wood Memorial last time out. Awesome Act is sired by Awesome Again, who won the Breeders Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. ICE BOX might get hurt a bit by the slop, but remember that he is perhaps the best closer in the field, and will have a chance to save ground early from the #2 post while the early speed gets out front and eventually. Speaking of saving ground, Calvin Borel has proven to be a master of that art in the process of winning a couple of Kentucky Derbies; he is one of the most successful jockeys ever at Churchill Downs and is aboard SUPER SAVER, which has been bet down considerably because of a decent past trip in the slop. NOBLE’S PROMISE won last year’s Breeders Futurity and had a rough trip in the Arkansas Derby. This is a horse that has battled the favorite, Lookin At Lucky, three times and came within a length each time. Don’t count it out. If we have room for any other horse in the exotics, let’s include JACKSON BEND, which has never been lower than second in nine career starts and always gives an honest effort. [/private]

COLLEGE BASKETBALL — February 6

BYU at UNLV
(UNLV -1.5) — [private] BYU has been on fire for most of the year, but sometimes they run into a road block when they hit the strip. The Cougars have lost six straight games in Las Vegas, and one of the reasons is that they make BYU play at a faster pace than they would like to, leading to some errant shooting. Lon Kruger’s defensive scheme exerts pressure on the opposing team, and Tre’Von Willis was almost impossible for BYU to stop the first time around, nailing nine of 16 shots in the Rebels’ loss at the fortress BYU has in Provo. Note that UNLV has made at least 50% of its shots in each of the last four games.

THE PLAY: UNLV -1.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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COLLEGE BASKETBALL — February 6

CALIFORNIA at UCLA
(California -3.5) — [private] UCLA has done a rebound of sorts, winning four of its last five games,a nd maybe that the sign of an in-season turnaround, as has often been the case for Ben Howland-coached teams. One of those wins was against Cal, which shot just two for 18 from three-point range when they dropped a 76-75 decision at Berkeley a month ago. The Bears have really been up and down; lately it’s been “down” for this erratic bunch that has shot less than 40% in each of its last two. This is the fourth straight road game for the Bears, who got very little production outside of Jerome Randle the other night against USC.

THE PLAY: UCLA +3.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — February 5

DENVER at L.A. LAKERS
(Lakers -8.5, Total 199.5) — [private] The Lakers, as expected, had a rough time of it against Charlotte on Wednesday. Now they stay home to face a Nuggets team that has allowed 109 points in back-to-back games, is missing its leading scorer (Carmelo Anthony) and has covered three of its last 12 road games. The Staples Center has been a particular wasteland for Denver, which is on a 4-14 ATS run on the Lakers’ home floor. Here the Lakers take advantage of the opportunity for payback, as they suffered a humiliating 105-79 defeat at the Pepsi Center in the only meeting this season (November 13). Kobe Bryant is trying extra hard to do whatever it takes to play, despite having a bad ankle.

THE PLAY: L.A. LAKERS -8.5 ****

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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Formula One
BELGIAN GRAND PRIX

In this race, held at the legendary Spa, everything seems to be upside down. Giancarlo Fisichella, in his Force India car, has qualified for the pole, with Jarno Trulli and Nick Heidfeld, who have not been in too many races, a strong second and third on the grid. The Force India connections have been touting the new aerodynamic improvements they’ve made in the car, and there obviously is something to it. Heidfeld is a great story, along with teammate Robert Kubica, who qualified fifth, because the Sauber team has had to sustain the pullout of BMW and both drivers may have to look for a new job next year. Meanwhile, stalwarts like Lewis Hamilton, the winner in Hungary (and who had the fastest time in Friday practice), Fernando Alonso (with his worst qualifying position of the year), Heikki Kovalainen and Jenson Button (the points leader) are all starting in the second ten. Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel, who were both shut out of points in Valencia last week, need to have a good showing here but disappointed in Saturday qualfiying, and I’m not so sure they are going to be a factor. Hamilton and Kovalainen have the KERS, and with soft tires that is an aid. The same can be said about Kimi Raikonnen, who can get to the first turn faster than any of the KERS cars. The pole sitter in Belgium has won only three of the last 15 races, so Fisichella’s feat guarantees nothing. I’m wondering whether the Red Bull guys or the points leader, Button, can get to the front of the pack without KERS, but somebody who could figure here is Rubens Barrichello, who has ridden in the shadows of Button all year, but came on to win at Valencia to move into second in the points standings, with a real shot to win the title. He’s in fourth position, with a real chance to win the title, and I can not imagine him being a factor here. Trulli has responded to reports that he will not be retained by Toyota next season (if Toyota is still in the sport) with a second in qualifying. Raikkonen is another guy who may be looking for a job, as Ferrari seems set to go with two new drivers in 2010. Fisichella, oddly enough, is rumored to get one of those Ferrari jobs. Once again, we look for Nico Rosberg in one of the top five positions, with a shot at the podium.

Projected Top Five
KIMI RAIKKONEN
RUBENS BARRICHELLO
JARNO TRULLI
NICO ROSBURG
GIANCARLO FISICHELLA