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PRO FOOTBALL — February 7

NEW ORLEANS vs. INDIANAPOLIS
@ Miami Gardens, FL
(Colts -5, Total 57) — [private] It certainly looks like the Saints maybe getting some value in this line, doesn’t it? After all, it would be hard to say when the playoffs started that they would be a five-point underdog on a neutral field. The question, perhaps, is whether the perception of value matters when the Colts have the one player who can seemingly make more things happen than anyone else in the NFL.

Peyton Manning has obviously been on this Super Bowl road before, and this season he’s been more accurate than ever, completing 68.8% of his passes, and has thrown for the most yards since his monstrous 2004 campaign. On the other side, Drew Brees, had a great touchdown-interception ratio of better than three to one, and remember that he’s the one who threw for over 5000 yards last year. This, of course, is the first Super Bowl for him, and almost everyone on the Saints roster.

There are interesting fundamental advantages for the Saints, that’s for sure. For example, New Orleans is most certainly the better team when it comes to running the football, as it averages 4.5 yards a carry and has some depth back there, with Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell. The Colts simply haven’t run very well (3.5 ypc), and topping the hundred-yard mark against the Jets was truly considered a big accomplishment. Without safety Bob Sanders, Indianapolis also allowed 4.3 yards a carry on the season, so if either team is going to get some offensive balance, it’s going to be the Saints. The Colts’ defensive style, which is predicated on keeping the action in front of them rather than getting beat deep, should be to Brees’ liking as well, as he is best at throwing the short, accurate pass.

The quarterbacks could have a lot of time to throw. New Orleans lost Charles Grant with a biceps injury in the final regular season game (of course, they still have Will Smith). The Colts were still waiting to see if Dwight Freeney, with a severe ankle injury, can play. However, even if he does go, we doubt he’ll be all that effective. That should make for a net gain for New Orleans, which can get more people into the secondary if they don’t have to worry about “chipping” a guy like Freeney. Both teams protect the passer very well; both quarterbacks are among the best in the business when it comes to handling blitzes, and both can pick apart any defense with time to operate. The Saints may try to bully Manning the way they did Brett Favre in the NFC title game, but with all due respect to Favre, he’s not Manning. And let’s not forget – the Saints did not sack Favre.

Let’s expand on defense for a moment. When it came to points allowed, Indianapolis ranked 8th best in the NFL, and they are the “bend but not break” team, right? Still, they have allowed some of the more capable quarterbacks to move the ball up and down the field on them, and they have sustained enough injuries in the secondary (Sanders and Marlon Jackson among them) that they have concerns about depth. They did not face the biggest challenge in the post-season, from the Ravens and Jets, who have more pedestrian passing attacks than New Orleans. As for the Saints, they can be riddled in the secondary if they have to put five and six defenders back there, and Manning, whose second-half exploits forced the Jets to dip into their bench, is just the guy to exploit that kind of thing.

We know that New Orleans has gotten that “opportunistic” label, having scored eight defensive touchdowns (three of them by Darren Sharper), which is twice as much as anyone else. Is Manning going to afford them those opportunities?

These are rather unique circumstances in Super Bowl history, in that these teams have gotten here overwhelmingly on the basis of their offensive prowess, and almost in spite of the holes that both have in their defenses. As far as the side is concerned, the Colts may not represent great value in the number but do have the most indomitable element in this game, and he wears #18. With an extra week to get ready, I can see him taking advantage of this 4-3 defensive scheme, and more often than not, having more people into their routes than the Saints can cover (including the emerging Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, each of which had over 100 yards in the AFC title game).

Don’t expect many run-based, sustained drives in this one. The effect of each pass rush will be minimal. This is one of those games that won’t be over until it is really over, so whichever team is trailing will surely go down swinging. This is the highest total ever posted for a Super Bowl, but each team is fully capable of contributing to exceeding it.

THE PLAYS:

OVER 57 ****
INDIANAPOLIS -200 **
INDIANAPOLIS -5 *
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — January 24

MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS
NFC Championship
(Saints -3.5, Total 54) — [private] To say that both of these teams were incredibly impressive last week would be understating the case. For the Saints, the “wild card” emerged in the person of Reggie Bush, who got loose on a number of plays, including a touchdown on a punt return. For the Vikings, well, Brett Favre has been pretty hot all year, and last week he found Sidney Rice, who has become a stud under his leadership, for 141 yards and three touchdowns. Everybody is fully aware of what Drew Brees can do, with 37 TD’s and only 11 picks, with almost 71% completions, which is better than last year’s figure.

Including the playoff game, Favre has also thrown 37 TD passes with just seven interceptions, and he really cooled down the Dallas Cowboys, who seemed to be sailing along to the Super Bowl in a lot of people’s minds, tossing four scoring passes. One of his strengths is that he can spread it around, not just to Rice, but to targets like Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin and tight end Visanthe Shancoe, who is a great option for him in the red zone.

One of the things about the Vikings is that it is impossible to overplay to the run or to the pass. As for the Saints, we’re not so sure. New Orleans, which had an extremely potent running game at the start of the season, then tailed off in that regard, got back to more balance in the win over Arizona, with 171 yards on the ground, Do they need the balance? That’s a good question, because the “Williams Wall”might prevent that, as the Vikings have allowed less than four yards a carry and 87 yards a game, which was the second lowest figure in the league.

The Saints defense – was it as good as we were led to believe? Maybe not, as they allowed 5.5 yards a play, which was middle of the pack at best, and the 4.5 yard a carry they yielded does not look like a good sign against someone like Adrian Peterson. Upon close examination, that may be the major difference between these teams – Minnesota has the go-to running back, and in fact, though you would get arguments in Nashville about Chris Johnson, the best at carrying the mail in the NFL. Bush averaged 5.6 yards a pop and 7.1 yards a catch, but he was not nearly as prolific, and did not break lot of big plays during the regular season.

Let’s not get completely delusional about Minnesota and its chances – the Saints have won seven games at home this season, and they have all been by eight points or more (with the Pats, Jet and Giants among the victims) while Minnesota’s toughest moments were all on the road, dropping decisions to the Steelers, Cards, Panthers and Bears. What we think we’ll see here is a game that is not dominated by either team, but instead one where they will trust the ball in the hands of two experienced, accurate quarterbacks with multiple receivers at their disposal, and where it may not be decided until the last possession. In a game like that, it may be most useful to look at the total.

THE PLAY: OVER 54 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — January 24

N.Y. JETS at INDIANAPOLIS
AFC Championship
(Colts -8.5, Total 40) — [private] Colts coach Jim Caldwell may find out he made two mistakes when he laid down and threw the game four weeks ago against these New York Jets – (1) Such a thing helped to allow the Jets to get into the playoffs in the first place, and (2) it supplied Rex Ryan’s team with the confidence of knowing that it could sock these Colts in the mouth – at Lucas Oil Stadium no less – and come out on top. I don’t think (2) is all that hollow, because the Jets were within 15-10, despite 192 passing yards by Peyton Manning, at the time of Caldwell’s surrender.

Considering the limitations of the Jets passing game with rookie Mark Sanchez at the controls, and their reticence to place the whole thing on his shoulders, you can expect that Indianapolis is going to try and get off to enough of an early lead that they will make the Jets do some things they don’t want to do on offense. I have sincere doubts that is going to happen, though, because Ryan will come out with defensive looks that are confusing enough to prevent that at the outset. Don’t forget also that Manning has never been altogether comfortable facing 3-4 alignments, and Ryan will fly in the face of convention on many occasions, deciding to rush him instead of defending him (despite the fact that Manning’s been sacked only ten times), and has the luxury to do so because of the potency of Jet corners Darelle Revis and Lito Sheppard. The Jets may give him some nibbles, but the intermediate and long-range passes will be difficult against a secondary that has permitted just 4.9 yards an attempt. This might create a bit of a conundrum for Indy, which can’t seem to run the football, no matter how hard they try.

The Colts succeeded with their intended strategy last week against Baltimore, but the Ravens still got over four and a half yards a carry. For the season, Indy’s defensive front has posted a 4.3 ypc against, and let’s be clear – if “shortening the game” is the path to a win, or at least a cover – the Jets can do that better than any team in the league because with their big offensive line, stocked with three Pro Bowl selections (D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Alan Faneca and Nick Mangold) has been able to grind down most opponents. Just taking a sampling of these “must” games they’ve had to play, New York has rambled for 200 yards a game over the last four, and with the emergence of Shonn Greene (263 yards in the playoffs) they’ll always have a fresh runner in the game.

The Colts, with Manning, have just an 8-8 record in the playoffs, but against those teams who employ a 3-4 defense, they are just 2-5 straight-up in the post-season, and Manning has nine TD’s and nine interceptions. By the way, against Baltimore’s 3-4 last week, he averaged 5.6 yards an attempt, far off his mark of 7.9 for the regular season and 7.7 for his career.

Who’s to argue that the Jets, who are 7-1, both straight-up and against the number, in their last eight, aren’t playing every bit as well as the Colts right now, if not better? Certainly they are a lot more confident now then they were as a 7-7 team with their post-season fate in the balance on the previous trip to Indianapolis. And Sanchez has thrown just one pick in the last two games, and isn’t even playing like a rookie anymore.

Aside from that, how can you not appreciate the poetic justice involved with a possible win by the Jets, and won’t that teach the rookie coach (Caldwell, not Ryan) a lesson about rolling over and playing dead while charging fans the price of admission? As for the other rookie coach, his prediction at the start of the playoffs – that his team should be favored to go to the Super Bowl – may turn out to be the most prescient since that other Big Apple icon, Joe Namath.

Defense. Running game. Brash and confident coach, with a gutless coach on the other side. That’s a pretty good formula for keeping it inside a number like this.

THE PLAY: N.Y. JETS +8.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — January 17

N.Y. JETS at SAN DIEGO
AFC Divisional Playoff
(Chargers -7, Total 42) — [private] San Diego did in the second half of the season what San Diego has become accustomed to doing in the second half of the season, except they did it on an extended basis, winning eleven straight games to finish things out. That’s obviously no accident, as they benefited form one of the more accurate passers in the NFL in Philip Rivers, who threw for 4254 yards and was intercepted only nine times. Of course, if you want to look at it from another perspective, you wonder whether this team did it with smoke and mirrors, as it is hardly a dominant all-around team.

For example, LaDainian Tomlinson has been living on reputation alone this season and last, and averaged just 3.3 yards a carry, and Darren Sproles has not produced much more, with only 343 rushing yards. You get the feeling the Jets could cheat a little with its #1-rated defense, and if they can stick Darrell Reivis one-on-one with Vincent Jackson, the Chargers’ top wideout, they may be successful, because with all due respect to Malcolm Floyd (17 yards a catch) you can’t say that San Diego has an unbeatable complement to Jackson. The Jets are becoming just what Rex Ryan expected them to be on the defensive side, which is a force to be reckoned with. They are #1 in the NFL, allow less than five yards a pass and 3.8 yards a run, and appear to have the kind of pressure package that will make Rivers make decisions before he wants to. The Jets have yielded just 61 points in the last seven games, which would appear to give them a lot of room inside this number.

They seem to be able to move the ball enough to move the chains, with 630 rushing yards over the last three, and San Diego, which has suffered from the absence of All-Pro nose tackle Jamal Williams, gives up 4.5 yards a pop. Aside from that, they’ve been shuffling a banged-up offensive line all year. New York demonstrated that it can win a playoff game on the road last week, and it’s really not too hard to be drinking the Kool-Aid. Remember what Ryan said before the last week of the season: “If we get in, lookout.” Also, and we don’t mean to be party poopers, but with all those furious finishes for the Chargers, none of it has produced so much as one Super Bowl appearance under either Norv Turner or Marty Schottenheimer before him.

THE PLAY: N.Y. JETS +7 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — January 17

DALLAS at MINNESOTA
NFC Divisional Playoff
(Vikings -2.5, Total 45.5) — [private] In the last month, Dallas has put an end to New Orleans’ unbeaten season, pitched shutouts over the Eagles and Redskins, and beat the Eagles pretty handily in the first round of the playoffs. Everybody is getting very excited about them, and the perception is that they are the team in the NFC playoffs that has the most momentum. In his last seven games, Tony Romo has 13 TD passes with just two INT’s. There is that three-headed running game, which includes a big play back in Felix Jones, and the Cowboys have rushed for 377 yards in the last two games.

Meanwhile, it is also perceived that Minnesota may have peaked too early, and they did not come down the stretch with a particular degree of strength, losing to Arizona, Chicago and Carolina in the last five games. The number has reflected all this, giving a lot of respect to the Cowboys, who have won one playoff game since 1996. Let’s keep a few things in mind, though. One is that Minnesota got a thorough workout against the Giants in the regular season finale, scoring a 44-7 rout and taking out some frustrations in the process. The week of rest has to do some good for Brett Favre, and while we recognize that Romo has been on a hot streak, Favre has been making plays and taking care of the ball all season long (33 TD’s, 7 INT’s). He still has the best and most explosive running back on the field at his disposal in Adrian Peterson (1383 yards), even though we concede that Peterson hasn’t reached 100 yards for seven straight games. In a game where both teams have quality pass rushes, we see Romo as the guy more likely to make the key mistake, especially in the Metrodome, where the Vikes have won all eight games this year, beating three playoff teams along the way.

Watch Favre deal with Dallas pressure by hitting tight end Visante Shancoe and wide receiver Percy Harvin on short patterns. And there isn’t a Cowboy corner who can go up for a ball with Sidney Rice. The Cowboy defense may be in a better place right now, but they still have a lot of work to do on offense to keep pace with Minnesota, which averaged 33 points as the home team.

THE PLAY: MINNESOTA -2.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — January 16

ARIZONA at NEW ORLEANS
NFC Divisional Playoff
(Saints -7, Total 57) — [private] Let’s consider, if you will, that New Orleans has not won a game since December 13, and had a pretty rough time of it in the two games before that, where they barely got by Atlanta and Washington. They have covered two of their last ten games, and there is the very real possibility that they peaked too soon. Thus, this is a very dangerous game for them, because like the game against the Cowboys, where they dropped their first after 13 wins, if they go to sleep for a quarter, they could find themselves almost of the running. Drew Brees is the guy who has to wind up and get the offense back in order. With 71% completions and some weapons who ought to be healthier and better rested (from an offense that had to go less than 13 yards per point), he may have his team in pretty good shape, especially the way Arizona was covering in the secondary against Aaron Rodgers last week. We’re told that Arizona will most likely be without Anquan Boldin, but that didn’t seem to bother Kurt Warner much last week, when he completed 29 of 33 passes. Since Warner often gets his game up for the playoffs (72% with 16 TD’s, 3 INT’s in playoffs last two years), we’re not all that worried about him having an implosion. He’ll improvise again, and do it with Early Doucet. New Orleans’ running game, which was so productive earlier in the year, has lost some momentum lately (just 90 ypg in last five), while Arizona is getting more, in the person of Beanie Wells (91 yards vs. Green Bay). Remember that Ken Whisenhunt has covered all five of his games as a playoff coach, and even against a team that needs to regain what it may have lost, the defending NFC champs are still not getting any respect.

THE PLAY: ARIZONA +7 ****

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — January 16

BALTIMORE at INDIANAPOLIS
AFC Divisional Playoff
(Colts -6, Total 44) — [private] The laydown in the final two games, particularly the one against the Jets, leaves considerable doubt in this reporter’s mind as to whether this Colts team, and specifically the coaching staff, has the moral courage to reach for greatness. That may not impact their ability to win this game against the Ravens, but you must keep in mind that when it comes to mental toughness, Baltimore has shown about as much as anyone over the last season-plus, winning three playoff games on the road. The great accomplishment against new England is that they did it despite just four completions on the past of Joe Flacco, who had the second-lowest yardage total of his young career. He’ll have to improve on that for the Ravens to win, but let’s not forget a clock-chewing running attack, featuring Willis McGahee and Pro Bowlers Ja’Ron McClain and Ray Rice, that seems designed to keep people like Peyton Manning off the field. Because Indy is not impenetrable against the run (4.3 ypc allowed) that is going to happen to a certain extent. Last time these teams met, Manning was picked off twice in a narrow 17-15 win. The Colts have won and covered six in a row in this series, with Baltimore scoring a total of 61 points, so it’s safe to say that the Indianapolis defensive staff knows how to deal with this group of personnel. That Colt running game has had just 150 yards in the last three games, and since Baltimore gives up just 3.4 ypc, that leaves Jim Caldwell’s team half-equipped.

THE PLAY: UNDER 44 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — January 10

GREEN BAY at ARIZONA
(Packers -1.5, Total 47.5) — [private] I suppose, in a way, it is worthwhile to review last week’s game, where the Packers ran all over the Cardinals en route to a 33-7 victory, if for no other reason than that it produced some casualties on the part of this Arizona team. Anquan Boldin is listed as questionable, as he has a bothersome knee and ankle. Larry Fitzgerald said, If I were to be a betting man and, knowing his toughness, I know he’s going to give it a go.” That’s fine, but will he be able to contribute to the three-receiver effect that has made the Cardinals’ offense so difficult for others to defend? If not, can Early Doucet, who has just 17 receptions on the season, make up for it? I think not. Calais Campbell sustained a thumb injury and is also questionable. Another injury that looms critical is that of cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, whose knee is banged up and will leave a big hole open in that secondary if he can’t play.

At least the Cards got farther than last year’s Super Bowl opponent, the Steelers, who missed the playoffs altogether.

If you look at the fundamentals of this thing, you’re maybe asking yourself why a team that is the defending NFC champs – a team that went through this tournament last season and has a QB who is former Super Bowl MVP – would be a home underdog to a wild card team with a quarterback who is making his first playoff start.

Well, Green Bay is on a 20-7-1 ATS run as a road team, and closed out the season very strong, with six straight covers, and if they are just one last-second play away from having won their last eight. Aaron Rodgers, who was under siege earlier in the season, has become one of the best protected quarterbacks in the league, sacked just seven times in his last six games.

I don’t know if I want to be swayed by the number. The Packers had the league-leading +24 turnover ratio, while Arizona stood at a minus-7. That is quite a difference, and it makes sense. If Warner doesn’t have the full compliment of receivers, he may have to rely on the running game a little more, and that is perhaps playing into Green Bay’s hands (3.6 ypc, 83 ypg allowed). Interestingly, only a handful of teams permitted more than the Cardinals’ 4.5 yards a carry, so we’re going to give Ryan Grant (1253 yards) a better chance to establish a ground attack than the Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower combo.

It is true that Green Bay’s 44-point effort at Arizona was in the pre-season, and the 33-point game played kind of like a pre-season game, but you get to thinking there could be some style advantages. And at least the Packers, who have traveled back and forth again this week, are hardly strangers to the stadium in Glendale, set for their third game there in the last four and a half months. They will have played there so much, they’ll practically BE students at the University of Phoenix! Hey, they may have a healthy contingent of fans there as well; one writer estimated that they may have had almost 40% of the crowd last weekend.

THE PLAY: GREEN BAY -1.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — January 10

BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND
(Patriots -3.5, Total 43.5) — [private] Baltimore gave the appearance of not finishing the season too badly, as the Ravens gave up just 46 points in their last four games. However, three of those games were against teams that were offensively challenged (Oakland, Chicago, Detroit) and those are the kinds of teams Baltimore customarily feasts against. If you look at the games against teams with winning records, they defeated only a San Diego team that just hadn’t found its legs yet, and a Pittsburgh team that had Dennis Dixon at quarterback. There were also losses against the Bengals (twice), Vikings, Colts, Packers and Steelers, plus a defeat suffered at Foxborough on October 4, when the Patriots won a hard-fought 27-21 game. I’m not sure that is the kind of resume one can count on in going into Gillette Stadium again, facing a team that won all eight home games (5-3 ATS) there, and all of them by at least six points.

Injuries of course become an issue for the Pats, as Wes Welker, who’s had 346 catches the last three years, was injured in the season finale against Houston. So they will have to make it with Julian Edelman doing his best Welker imitation opposite Randy Moss. Edelman, the former quarterback at Kent State (like Josh Cribbs) was active when he was utilized, and he had ten catches against the Texans, but of course he does not bring all of what Welker brought to the table. There are other people around to help out, like Fred Taylor, who was fresh enough after sitting out 12 weeks with injury to score twice against Houston before New England kind of laid down.

Brady has an exceptional record at home in the playoffs, winning all eight times he’s taken snaps. He has also won 20 straight overall at Gillette. We don’t need to go into what kind of experience edge he has against Joe Flacco, who has been picked off just once in the last four games but had a 44% completion rate and a 50.8 quarterback rating in his three playoff starts last season, and was intercepted three times in the AFC title game at Pittsburgh. We grant that he has made progress, and John Harbaugh has given him more of the playbook, but is that enough to burn the Pats? He had 264 yards, one of his highest totals of the season, in the previous meeting but aired it out 47 times (just 5.6 yards an attempt).

There are arguments to be made for the Ravens. One, of course, is that Flacco is better with another year of experience. Another is that they still do a pretty good job stopping the run, and of course, can pound it with a deeper backfield that includes Pro Bowl performers Ray Rice and Le’Ron McCain, as well as Willis McGahee. In Harbaugh’s first year on the sidelines, he got his team through two playoff victories on the road – one of them against the #1 seed (Tennessee). Come to think of it, these aren’t bad arguments.

Baltimore is a team that will run right at the Pats, and there is little Bill Belichick is going to be able to do to outsmart that, because if he gets too cute, Flacco can get down the field. Teams can take Moss out of a game, and without Welker, that means Brady doesn’t have the reliable outlet with whom he’s developed so much timing over the last few years. When Welker was out of the lineup in the early going, the Jets sent a lot of the same blitzes Baltimore will send here and it was very uncomfortable for the former Super Bowl MVP. The Ravens could have easily won the first meeting between these two, and they have the capability of making up for it this time.

THE PLAY: BALTIMORE +3.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — January 9

N.Y. JETS at CINCINNATI
(Bengals -2.5, Total 34) — [private] At numerous times this year, and especially lately, Rex Ryan, coach of the jets, has stated that his team is built for exactly these circumstances, when the weather is cold and there is much at stake in the playoffs. Yes, his team plays defense (14.8 ppg against, best in the NFL) and runs the football (tops in the league as well). But on offense, you are looking at a one-dimensional team, unlike the Bengals, who may not be dynamic but are better-balanced, with Chad Ochocinco complemented by Laveranues Coles (43 catches, 514 yards) and Andre Caldwell (51 catches, 432 yards). Most importantly, the Bengals will have their emerging runner, Cedric Benson (1251 yards) back after sitting out last weekend.

Last Sunday’s 37-0 win over Cincinnati at the Meadowlands must give the Jets some confidence heading into this one. On the other hand, ask Marvin Lewis, off the record, why he thinks his team would have a chance to win this game, and he would tell you that last week’s game doesn’t count much because his team went into the tank. There are advantages to that, of course, namely that they saw some of what the jets have in the playbook while they didn’t have to show anything to the Jets. In effect, they have had two weeks to prepare for their playoff opponent because they have had the unique opportunity to PICK their first playoff opponent. That’s probably worth something, because it is otherwise impossible in the post-season. Now, you have to understand that the Bengals did not close things out with a head of steam, covering just one of their last seven games and not once as a favorite (the dog was 13-3 ATS in their games). But at this number, we’re not sure it’s necessarily very wise to go with a rookie quarterback (Mark Sanchez) who had 20 interceptions to go with just 12 TD’s, and completed just 52% of his passes on the road, with just over eleven completions a game. That is the kind of signal-caller, making his first post-season start, who cries out for a nine-man front, so that if the Jets are going to win the game, Cincinnati will make HIM do it.

One can not help but feel that the Jets are here on a wing and a prayer, with both Indianapolis and Cincinnati laying down to pave the way. Understand, though, that while the Colts did it because they were gutless, Cincy did it for a reason – to get to Sanchez. An impressionable quarterback is likely to be surprised by a completely different defensive approach taken by Cincinnati this week. The Jets convert only 37% of third-down chances – that won’t get it done.

THE PLAY: CINCINNATI -2.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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