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COLLEGE FOOTBALL — September 6

BOISE STATE vs. VIRGINIA TECH (@ Landover. MD)
(Line: Virginia Tech -1.5, Total 52) — You might call this more of a home game for Virginia Tech, but you can bet the Boise State offense will feel at home with each other because it returns ten players on that side,not to mention ten on a defensive unit that was able to hold a team like Oregon to 152 total yards last season. Kellen Moore, with 39 D’s and three interceptions last year (What WILL he do for an encore?) gets a big edge over counterpart Tyrod Taylor, whose arm is still a question against a sharp secondary. Virginia Tech is going to try to pound the ball, without a doubt, as not only do the Hokies have the services of sophomore Ryan Williams, who ran for 1655 yards as a freshman, but also Darren Evans, who missed last season with a knee injury but had 1265 yards in his own freshman season. Count on Boise to force Taylor to beat them with his arm. I like the steadier play of Moore, the mental toughness of the Bronco squad, their cast of weapons, which is not to be underestimated at all, and the fact that with 49 victories in their last 53 games, they are not going to fall easily. This will be that rare occasion where another team has the special teams edge over the Hokies as well. Score one for Chris Petersen’s team, which is playing its biggest regular season game ever.

JAY’S PLAY: BOISE STATE +1.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL — September 4

CINCINNATI at FRESNO STATE
(Line: Fresno State -2.5, Total 57.5) — Cincinnati has suffered some losses, most notably that of coach Brian Kelly, who departed for Notre Dame. Tony Pike, the quarterback from last year’s 12-1 team, has moved on as well. But just remember this about Cincinnati – this IS a team that has gone 23-4 SU over the last two seasons, and returns seven starters from the offense, plus quarterback Zach Collaros, who not only completed 75% of his passes (10 TD’s, 2 INT’s), but also ran for 344 yards and four scores when he was filling in for an injured Pike. Butch Jones assumes the coaching reins, having brought Central Michigan to a Mid-American Conference title. The team that perhaps suffers the biggest loss is Fresno State, which had to say goodbye to Ryan Matthews, who ran all over the Bearcats last season, to the tune of 145 yards. Not that the cupboard is bare, but you’d have to show me that the big play element is there with the likes of Robbie Rouse. The Bulldog defense needs to improve greatly on its average six yards per carry allowed, and how much they’ll do it, even with seven defensive starters back, is a big question. Take note that Fresno State has not covered in the last two seasons on its home field.

JAY’S PLAY: CINCINNATI +2.5 ****
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL — January 7

BCS Championship Game @ Pasadena, CA
ALABAMA vs. TEXAS
(Alabama -4, Total 46) — It’s hard to separate these two teams when it comes to the numbers they have compiled on defense. Alabama is second nationally in rushing defense, pass efficiency defense, scoring defense and total defense, and only two teams had more than 20 points against the Tide. Texas, which ranked third in overall defense, has allowed less rushing yards than anyone in the country, and slightly less than two yards a carry, not to mention picking off 24 passes and achieving 39 quarterback sacks., There are pro prospects all around, including linebacker/defensive end Sergio Kindle. Both teams permitted only five rushing touchdowns.

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The Longhorns, who scored 66 TD’s, would appear on the surface to have an edge on offense. However……

I don’t want to ascribe too much importance to some of the gratuitous scores Texas piled up on some of its opponents, like the 64-7 rout of UTEP that came at a time when the Longhorns were looking to do something to separate themselves from the pack of unbeaten challengers to Florida’s place at the top. What kind of stands out is that this was not a great year for the Big 12, which in the past was one of the deepest conferences in college football.

Teams like Texas Tech and Missouri were in something of a transition, and while they made it to bowl games, they were not anything special. Kansas went in the tank. Texas A&M started to rise, but they are young and inexperienced and without defense. Nebraska, which developed a fearsome stop unit, was without offense for almost the whole season. Oklahoma State never got a real head of steam going, having lost wide receiver Dez Bryant (a possible top-five draft choice) to ineligibility. Oklahoma was a shell of what it was last year, and the loss of Sam Bradford didn’t help. Frankly, there was not a lot for Texas to shine against, and with life-and-death battles against the Sooners, Huskers and even the Aggies, I’m not quite sure how good this team is.

By no means am I granting a quarterback advantage to Greg McElroy, who doesn’t appear to possess Colt McCoy’s all-around skills or experience as a four-year starter and two-time Heisman finalist. But a close examination of McCoy reveals that not only did he average almost a yard and a half less per attempt than he did last year, he was also a bit more erratic (12 interceptions, four more than last). On top of that, when called upon against the best defenses he’d face this season, he did not excel, to put it mildly. Texas Tech, which is not known for defense but had an improved unit, held him to 205 yards in 34 attempts and made two interceptions. Against Oklahoma, he was 21-for-39 for just 127 yards. Oklahoma State, another team which had a respectable defense but nothing earth-shattering, limited McCoy to 171 yards, and in the Big 12 title game, Nebraska held him to 184 yards passing (five yards an attempt) and picked him off three times.

In those four games, against arguably the four best opponents on the Texas schedule, McCoy was 62.3%, still very good but down from his season average, and passed for only 5.1 yards an attempt, which was way down from his 7.5-yard figure on the season and way, WAY down from his 8.9 yards of a year ago. In those games he threw just three TD passes but six INT’s, and in all other games, against opposition that was wanting for the most part, McCoy had a 24-6 ratio. Much was made of his mobility after rushing for 175 yards against Texas A&M, and he certainly has that in his arsenal, but he’s become more of a drop-back type; that figure constituted more than half his rushing total, and he didn’t have more than 44 yards in any other game. Even Mike Sherman would admit that his Aggie stop unit isn’t in the same area code as Alabama’s when it comes to being able to contain the quarterback.

None of this would be a big concern for McCoy if Texas had the kind of running game that could be reliable against a defense of Alabama’s quality, But the ‘Horns had a pedestrian attack, with freshman Tre Newton the leader at 513 yards, and a total of 200 yards or more only against UTEP, Baylor and A&M. So expect Nick Saban to send pressure.

What we’re saying here is that those who might want to afford an edge to Texas in this game primarily on the basis of the “McCoy factor” may want to double back and gather some perspective.

Incidentally, as far as McElroy goes, he threw 17 touchdown passes with only four interceptions, ranked 26th on the nation’s efficiency list (McCoy was 17th) and between high school and college has started 29 games – all of which his team has won.

As we have mentioned Texas’ close calls, we would be remiss if we didn’t mention some very anxious moments Alabama had against Tennessee (12-10) and Auburn (26-21), not to mention a tough LSU team (24-15). As you’re looking at this game, however, you may want to consider the disparity in quality between the SEC and Big 12, which in this reporter’s opinion was considerable this season. Nick Saban’s team dominated the biggest game of its season, against the team that was considered to be a clear #1 (Florida), gaining 490 yards against a defense that had allowed only 233 per game. Plus, Alabama scored a win over the kind of solid out-of-conference opponent (Virginia Tech) that Texas did not schedule. Adjust your stats relative to THAT.

Both of these teams have return game studs. Javier Arenas brings back punts and kickoffs for the Tide, while the ‘Horns counter with the explosive DJ Monroe (a kickoff returner who is off suspension for this game) and Jordan Shipley, the All-America receiver who handles punts. In a game where we concede defense could play a dominant part, that can mean a lot. But Alabama has an edge with kicker Leigh Tiffin, the Lou Groza Award winner, who can turn more drives into points, and the presence of Heisman winner Mark Ingram (1542 yards) and freshman backup Trent Richardson give Alabama more balance, and thus more ways to advance the ball.

Both of these clubs are likely to bring a lot of pressure on the defensive side, but ‘Bama is the side that will counter-act the pressure better, and “cheat” on defense more effectively. We have to turn to the Tide.

THE PLAY: ALABAMA -4 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL — January 6

GMAC Bowl @ Mobile, AL
TROY vs, CENTRAL MICHIGAN
(Central Michigan -3, Total 63) — [private] Central Michigan is again a team that is participating in the sad, corrupt game of “musical coaching chairs” at the conclusion of each regular season, as Butch Jones, the coach who took over when Brian Kelly ran out on the club and dashed to Cincinnati, has now followed in Kelly’s footsteps once more, taking the job at Cincinnati after Kelly went to Notre Dame. I’m not sure any of this matters, because there will be some offensive continuity here, and in terms of college football, the Chippewas have a coach on the field in Dan LeFevour, who closes out a stellar collegiate career that has seen him pass for 12,501 yards.

Neither of these teams had a lot of problem in putting points on the board this season, and that means, by definition, that Levi Brown is a capable quarterback as well. Brown completed passes at a 65% rate this year, and over the last two seasons he has 37 TD’s with just 12 interceptions. As Troy won nine of its last ten games, he had a 21-6 ratio. The difference between him and LeFevour, aside from experience, is that LeFevour is even more accurate (71%) and can supplement what he does with his arm with an ability to rush the ball (701 yards, and a high of 1122 yards as a sophomore). He can throw the ball on the run, mitigating the effect of enemy pass rushes, and that is one of the things that makes him attractive to pro scouts, despite his rather strange throwing motion.

There is another big difference, and that is in the relative strength of these stop units. Troy did play one powerhouse team in the Florida Gators, but that doesn’t fully explain why they allowed more than eleven points a game more than CMU, and offenses had to travel 19 yards for every point they scored against the Chippewas, compared to less than fifteen for the Trojans’ opponents. Giving up 592 yards against Arkansas and 563 against Louisiana-Lafayette in the season’s final weeks was not a particularly good sign. On the ground or through the air, Central Michigan is harder to make advances against.

THE PLAY: CENTRAL MICHIGAN -3 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL — January 5

Orange Bowl @ Miami Gardens, FL
GEORGIA TECH vs. IOWA
(Georgia Tech -5.5, Total 51) — [private] Iowa got the job done mostly on defense this season, and their stop unit held opponents to 3.5 yards a carry, and the secondary picked off 20 passes while allowing just over 50% completions. They limited Penn State to 10 points, Arizona to 17, Wisconsin to ten, and shut out Minnesota in the regular season finale. However, they did not see anything on their schedule that resembled the Yellow Jackets’ offense.

The assumption on the part of some people is that it is going to be a lot easier for the Hawkeyes to contend with the Georgia Tech triple option because they have a month to prepare for it instead of a week. There is some truth to that, but it’s useful to remember that (a) they don’t necessarily have the people who can represent it with the scout team, and (b) it is hard to simulate, even if they had the personnel. Consider that Clemson actually had a game plan in place from earlier in the season and couldn’t even slow Georgia Tech the second time around.

There is also a big deal being made about Ricky Stanzi returning to the lineup as Iowa’s quarterback. While it is true that he brought more leadership to the table than freshman James Vanderberg, who stepped in for him, it is also important to look at what he did on the field, and Stanzi completed just 56% of his passes with 15 TD’s and 14 INT’s. He will also be playing for the first time in about two months, and it’s hard to tell how sharp he is going to be.

Paul Johnson is a coach who has often made the most of his pointspread opportunities. He has covered 16 of 23 games since he took over at Georgia Tech and his ATS record at the Naval Academy was outstanding too. His option was not simple for anyone, chalking up 309 yards against Virginia Tech, 301 and 333 yards in two meetings against Clemson, 317 against North Carolina, 404 against Florida State and 412 against Wake Forest. Only Miami (95 yards) slowed it to a virtual stop. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt can’t be relied on to sling it all over the field, but he averaged 11 yards an attempt, which would have led the nation by a yard and a half an attempt if he’d have only thrown enough to qualify (with 42 more attempts).

Still, there are things that worry us about Georgia Tech as the favorite. The Yellow Jackets allowed almost five yards a carry, and between freshman running backs Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher, the Hawkeyes have people who can grind it out. The Tech secondary picked off only 11 passes and did not get to the quarterback much. There is going to be room for the Iowa offense to maneuver, and if you take a look at Georgia Tech’s slate, you’ll notice that the defense made it close with almost all capable opposition. Iowa is perhaps the most capable team they’ve played this year.

THE PLAY: IOWA +5.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL — January 4

Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ
TCU vs. BOISE STATE
(TCU -7, Total 53.5) — [private] This is an unusual game for several reasons. For one thing, both teams are “outsiders” in terms of the BCS, in that they became exceptions to the rule confining these spots to BCS conference teams. For another thing, it’s a rematch, as TCU eked out a 17-16 win in the Poinsettia Bowl last season while sporting a 472-250 yardage edge. Some of the things are similar to last year, but a few things are different. Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is now coming off a sensational sophomore season where he ranked first among the nation’s passers in efficiency, completing 65% of his passes with 39 TD’s and only THREE interceptions. He’s not the kind of guy who is likely to be rattled, and even though he doesn’t have a rocket arm he is deadly accurate and gets rid of the ball in a hurry. He suffered only five sacks all year, which offers a challenge to the TCU unit that dumped the quarterback 32 times and features the All-America Jerry Hughes at one defensive end spot. Boise State developed Ryan Clady to the point where he became a first-round NFL choice and Pro Bowl performer, and now they have Nate Potter over there, who has turned out to be a real diamond in the rough. There is no doubt about TCU’s superlatives, as the Horned Frogs are first in total defense (allowing 233 yards a game), third against the pass, third against the run, third in passing efficiency behind Andy Dalton (62%, 2 TD’s, 5 INT’s), fifth in rushing, 19th in punt returns (Jeremy Kerley was the star there), and with victories AT Clemson, Air Force and BYU, and at home against Utah, they don’t have anything to prove to anybody. Their approach on offense may be to grind things out, however, because Dalton is not going to stretch the field any farther than Moore will. And you have to remember that Boise State, which has a +19 turnover margin, probably has a better defensive unit than it did last season; although Ryan Matthews did manage to tear through them a bit, the Broncos limited Oregon to 152 yards and six first downs in the season opener. They have more playmakers with genuine speed on both sides of the ball, as Chris Petersen, whose record at the school is now 48-4, is really seeing his recruiting bear fruit. We can cite Jeremy Avery (1130 yards rushing) and Titus Young (969 yards receiving) in particular, and note that Young had two kickoff returns for touchdowns to bolster a very strong special teams unit. We can see more potential for big plays from Boise State, which led the nation in scoring (44.2 ppg), and even if things get slowed down a bit, they have the smarts, the coaching and the element of surprise (just recall that Fiesta Bowl win a couple of years ago) to hang in all the way.

THE PLAY: BOISE STATE +7 ****

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL — January 2

Alamo Bowl @ San Antonio
MICHIGAN STATE vs. TEXAS TECH
(Texas Tech -7.5, Total 59.5) — [private] Needless to say, there is a strange dynamic surrounding this game. Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio suspended eleven of his players, including wide receivers Mark Dell and BJ Cunningham, not to mention cornerback Chris Rucker, as they were involved in a fight at a dorm on campus. Those losses will hurt, but they’re not creating confusion, and MSU still has the nucleus of its running game as well as its defense, not to mention a very talented and developing quarterback in sophomore Kirk Cousins (61%, 18 TD’s, 7 INT’s), who is very firmly in charge at this point with the shift of Keith Nichol to the wide receiver position for this one. The Spartans have been able to protect their passers and get pressure on opposing QB’s, ranking in the top 20 in both categories. Texas Tech put up big numbers, and that is no surprise, ranking second in passing offense, mostly behind Taylor Potts, who threw for 3068 yards as a freshman. After throwing for 400 yards or more in his first three collegiate starts, however, Potts got erratic, and was even benched at one point. There is nothing wrong with the rushing game (Baron Batch had 784 yards) or the pass rush (second-most sack in the country). But the confusion and controversy surrounding fired coach Mike Leach has been a distraction that could be too much to overcome. It has been the only news story for over a week in Lubbock, and the opinion of players is somewhat split on him and receiver Adam James, who lodged the complaint against Leach that eventually led to the fireworks. It’s not ending soon, with a lawsuit coming from Leach. One player mentioned that his team finally had a good practice after Leach’s departure. That sounds like a little late in the day. Michigan State was truly outclassed only by Penn State; some of the other losses came by two points against Central Michigan, three points to Notre Dame, two points to Iowa, and eight points each to Wisconsin and Minnesota. Meanwhile, Dantonio has had to deal with a rash of injuries at the skill positions, so this is nothing brand-new for him. His team got a wakeup call with the suspensions, unlike Texas Tech, where they were wondering who was in charge and may still be conflicted about it. Interestingly, MSU has achieved more yards per pass than Texas Tech. Look out for some gadget plays involving Cousins and Nichol.

THE PLAY: MICHIGAN STATE +7.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL — January 2

Liberty Bowl @ Memphis
ARKANSAS vs. EAST CAROLINA
(Arkansas -7.5, Total 63.5) — [private] Ryan Mallett made the right decision, as it turns out, transferring out of the Michigan football program when Rich Rodriguez moved in as coach, and hooking up with Bobby Petrino at Arkansas. The result has been some gaudy stats that include 29 touchdowns, 9.3 yards an attempt and only seven interceptions. In only one game did he have less than 200 yards passing, and he hit for five TD’s apiece in games against Georgia, Troy and Mississippi State. Some of the better defenses really slowed Mallett down, however, and even though we don’t necessarily put East Carolina in that category, the Pirates did manage to take some capable quarterbacks out of their rhythm during their four-game winning streak down the stretch, including the Conference USA title game against Houston, where they allowed 527 passing yards to Case Keenum, but accounted for three of Keenum’s nine INT’s on the year and held the Cougars to eleven points below their scoring average. On the season, ECU has 33 takeaways, good for a +13 TO margin. And expect that as was the case in their wins against one-dimensional Houston and Tulsa, they will take advantage of the fact that Arkansas just doesn’t run the ball very much, or very well. Dominique Lindsay offers a lot more balance for Skip Holtz’s team, with 1029 yards (five per carry), and Patrick Pinkney, who is playing in his third bowl game, threw for at least 250 yards in each of his last four games, without an interception. Petrino has not stressed defense all that much in Fayetteville (90th overall in the country) and East Carolina has been very solid when stepping up in competition, covering 22 of its last 32 games as an underdog. Mallett’s had some distractions leading up to this game as he weighs an early entry into the NFL, and he was disciplined by Petrino for being late to a meeting.

THE PLAY: EAST CAROLINA +7.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL — January 2

Cotton Bowl @ Dallas
OLE MISS vs. OKLAHOMA STATE
(Ole Miss -3, Total 50.5) — [private] Ole Miss ended its regular season on a downer, getting beaten by two touchdowns by Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. Actually, the whole thing was a bit disappointing, and one of the reasons was the failure of Jevan Snead to advance to the next level. As the Rebels finished last season with a tremendous rush, Snead picked up momentum and was touted as a Heisman candidate, as well as a future high draft choice, but he simply did not get it done for Ole Miss, completing just 54% and tossing 17 interceptions, coming up short in key situations as his team never contended. It’s a good thing for the Rebels that Dexter McCluster had huge games against Tennessee (282 yards) and LSU (148 yards) as Mississippi won both. Oklahoma State is not badly positioned to defend opposing running games, and it should be noted that no team got more than 156 yards against them. Zac Robinson was handcuffed a bit by not having Dez Bryant at his disposal for much of the year (ruled ineligible) and Kendall Hunter, an All-America candidate, got injured, but Robinson improvised, Keith Toston (1177 yards) stepped in well for Hunter, who is now back to complete that 1-2 punch. All in all, this is more impressive than what Ole Miss has to offer.

THE PLAY: OKLAHOMA STATE +3 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL — January 2

International Bowl @ Toronto
NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
(South Florida -7, Total 48.5) — [private] It’s not like Northern Illinois is a pushover. Nor are they the kind of program that is a stranger to bowls, making their fourth post-season appearance in six years. Despite only 274 yards, NIU hung tough against Wisconsin, dropping an eight-point decision, and later took the measure of another Big Ten team in Purdue. There were losses to Toledo, Ohio and Central Michigan, as well as Humanitarian Bowl winner Idaho. This team must run the ball, but the Huskies have done it against enough teams that even though QB Chandler Harnish has not been very prolific, he has been efficient, completing 66% of his passes and throwing only five interceptions. That running game seemed to slow down toward the end of the season, though (363 yards in last three) as the ratio of passes to rushing plays went up, and yards per carry was significantly reduced. That running game has suffered from some bumps and bruises, as Chad Spann (19 TD’s) was affected by a shoulder injury in the last two weeks and second-leading rusher Meco Brown didn’t make the trip at all. South Florida’s run defense is not rock-hard, and that could present an opportunity for Northern Illinois, which has to do something to control USF’s defensive ends, George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul. The Bulls’ quarterback, BJ Daniels, who took over when Matt Grothe went down and engineered wins over Florida State and West Virginia, sometimes has his game together and sometimes doesn’t. He’s been hard-pressed to complete more than half his passes. NIU, with an experienced offensive line, can compete, and Spann has had extra time to heal up, so he should be fine. USF Coach Jim Leavitt is the subject of an investigation for allegedly striking a player, and that can’t be a useful distraction.

THE PLAY: NORTHERN ILLINOIS +7 **

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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