BOISE STATE vs. VIRGINIA TECH (@ Landover. MD)
(Line: Virginia Tech -1.5, Total 52) — You might call this more of a home game for Virginia Tech, but you can bet the Boise State offense will feel at home with each other because it returns ten players on that side,not to mention ten on a defensive unit that was able to hold a team like Oregon to 152 total yards last season. Kellen Moore, with 39 D’s and three interceptions last year (What WILL he do for an encore?) gets a big edge over counterpart Tyrod Taylor, whose arm is still a question against a sharp secondary. Virginia Tech is going to try to pound the ball, without a doubt, as not only do the Hokies have the services of sophomore Ryan Williams, who ran for 1655 yards as a freshman, but also Darren Evans, who missed last season with a knee injury but had 1265 yards in his own freshman season. Count on Boise to force Taylor to beat them with his arm. I like the steadier play of Moore, the mental toughness of the Bronco squad, their cast of weapons, which is not to be underestimated at all, and the fact that with 49 victories in their last 53 games, they are not going to fall easily. This will be that rare occasion where another team has the special teams edge over the Hokies as well. Score one for Chris Petersen’s team, which is playing its biggest regular season game ever.

JAY’S PLAY: BOISE STATE +1.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)

CINCINNATI at FRESNO STATE
(Line: Fresno State -2.5, Total 57.5) — Cincinnati has suffered some losses, most notably that of coach Brian Kelly, who departed for Notre Dame. Tony Pike, the quarterback from last year’s 12-1 team, has moved on as well. But just remember this about Cincinnati – this IS a team that has gone 23-4 SU over the last two seasons, and returns seven starters from the offense, plus quarterback Zach Collaros, who not only completed 75% of his passes (10 TD’s, 2 INT’s), but also ran for 344 yards and four scores when he was filling in for an injured Pike. Butch Jones assumes the coaching reins, having brought Central Michigan to a Mid-American Conference title. The team that perhaps suffers the biggest loss is Fresno State, which had to say goodbye to Ryan Matthews, who ran all over the Bearcats last season, to the tune of 145 yards. Not that the cupboard is bare, but you’d have to show me that the big play element is there with the likes of Robbie Rouse. The Bulldog defense needs to improve greatly on its average six yards per carry allowed, and how much they’ll do it, even with seven defensive starters back, is a big question. Take note that Fresno State has not covered in the last two seasons on its home field.

JAY’S PLAY: CINCINNATI +2.5 ****
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)

BOSTON at L.A. LAKERS
NBA Finals – Game 7

(Lakers -6.5, Total 186.5) — [private] The oddsmakers were probably thinking in the right direction when they lowered the total on this game. There is going to be, I imagine, a tendency to be very deliberate on the part of both of these teams, who don’t want to make the critical mistake that is going to lead to a run by the other. Neither club was sharp in its marksmanship the other night – the Celtics hit only 33% of their shots but the Lakers were also just 42% from the field. Not to say Boston’s offense won’t improve, but neither team has been inclined to execute a fast break on many occasions, and they have played six unders in the last eight meetings. I look for a two-man game between Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol on the Laker end, and Gasol will get the opportunity to exploit the absence of Kendrick Perkins from the Celtics’ lineup, which means almost exclusively half-court setups where they work the ball around the perimeter to prevent the Boston defense from collapsing. And no, Perkins does not the ability not pull a “Willis Reed” tonight, something that would be familiar to older fans. This game will bring excitement, no doubt, but that will be because of what is very clearly at stake, and not because of the pace of play. It will be sludgeball, fought within the muck and mire, and both teams will be just fine with that.

THE PLAY: UNDER 186.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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BOSTON at L.A. LAKERS
NBA Finals – Game 6

(Lakers -6.5, Total 190) — [private] Yeah, the Celtics shot 56% compared to just under 40% for the Lakers in Game 5, yet the Lakers got themselves back into game and stayed there almost until the end. Good sign for L.A., right? Well, not necessarily. Remember that Boston gave up a lot of offensive rebounds in the game (16) and we are not likely to see that again. The Celts are using Kobe Bryant’s greatness against him; in other words, they’ve got him playing so much one-on-one basketball that the rest of his team is just standing around a lot of the time down the floor. They’ve done the same thing to LeBron James and the Cavs. It’s a painful reminder that this is a TEAM game. Another reminder that might be painful for Laker fans – when the Celtics and their “Big Three” have been healthy (and keep in mind that last year Garnett was out), they have not lost a playoff series. Now you can add Rondo, which makes it a “Big Four,” if you will, in addition to a superior bench, which was a factor two years ago, and you know that even if the Lakers are able to extend this series to a seventh game, Boston has more than enough capability to keep it close.

THE PLAY: BOSTON +6.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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L.A. LAKERS at BOSTON
NBA Finals – Game 5

(Celtics -2, Total 189) — [private] The big mystery is whether Andrew Bynum can heal himself up enough to play, and if he can’t go a lot of minutes (he played just two in the second half of Game 4) that opens things up in the lane for Boston’s big men, and especially those who come off the bench. Speaking of the reserves, they are the ones showing much more energy. Let’s see if Lamar Odom gets cranked up. I don’t know if he can have a big impact at this point; it has been too easy for the Celtics to get him into foul trouble. The Celtics are just too physical right now to deal with in the half-court game. And as this series continues, they are coming up with ways to extract advantages, even though the Lakers have approached their season’s shooting percentage in the last couple of games, while the Celtics have not. Let’s not discount that Boston has finally discovered that they have a guard who can come off the bench and score points at a higher rate than Eddie House did. His name is Nate Robinson.

THE PLAY: BOSTON -3 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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L.A. LAKERS at BOSTON
NBA Finals – Game 4

(Celtics -4, Total 190.5) — [private] Neither of these teams did anything worth a damn in Tuesday night’s game, but it was Boston that was sunk when they tried to go to the well again with Ray Allen and he came up empty – to the tune of 0-for-13 on the game. That smarts, and while I’m sure it won’t be happening again, neither do I assume Allen is going to come up big in this game. The Celtics are probably doing what they really want to do, which is to make Kobe Bryant take some bad shots, and they made him go 10-for-29, AND leave Pau Gasol out of the offense at the same time. Lamar Odom, who was five-for-five the other night, could contribute more, but he has committed 14 fouls in three games. Ron Artest is locking up on Paul Pierce, and Pierce is missing a lot of open shots as well. Can these guys fumble around on offense again? You bet!

THE PLAY: UNDER 190.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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L.A. LAKERS at BOSTON
NBA Finals – Game 3

(Celtics -2.5, Total 191) — [private] Have you noticed that Kevin Garnett seems to be deteriorating a little as the playoff has progressed into the final round. He was only able to manage 23 minutes in Game 2, and that is the way it sometimes happens, when you are getting on in years and you’ve had knee issues and the muscles don’t always respond the way you’d like. When he is ailing, so is the overall Celtics’ defensive concept, and that means easier baskets for Pau Gasol. That might count for Lamar Odom too, because he has only scored eight points in two games thus far. Odom needs to get some different defensive assignments, because he has committed five fouls in each game. Maybe Phil Jackson will have a talk with Ron Artest about taking those awful shots, and Paul Pierce will be able to find the mark, as Odom leaves him alone a little more to cut down on his fouling. With the exception of Ray Allen’s marksmanship, these teams did not shoot well in Game 2 (40.8% for the Lakers, 42.9% for the Celtics), yet still went over the total.

THE PLAY: OVER 191 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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BOSTON at L.A. LAKERS
NBA Finals – Game 2

(Lakers -6, Total 193) — [private] This was the way the Celtics’ series began against Cleveland – listless, lack of hustle, getting beaten to the punch. It all added up to a Boston team that never really put itself into the game. It would be truly surprising if they showed the same kind of effort, or rather non-effort, in Game 2. With a prideful, veteran team, I would expect that there will be some kind of adjustment made to the way they deal with Pau Gasol, who is admittedly very hard to stop. There are other things to deal with, and those are the fact that Kobe Bryant, who had 30 in Game 1, is going to get all the borderline calls at the Staples Center, and that Lamar Odom, who matches up well against the Celtic defense, is bound to be a bigger factor. However, you are still looking at a Celtic lineup that has not lost a playoff series together, and with prideful veterans on board, you can bet you’ll see more intensity here.

THE PLAY: BOSTON +6 **

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PHOENIX at L.A. LAKERS
Western Conference Finals – Game 5

(Lakers -7.5, Total 217.5) — [private] Phoenix was the best shooting team in the NBA this season, yet the Lakers have had the shooting edge (in percentage terms) in each of the four games. This comes even as the Suns introduced their new defensive approach, which forced 60 three-point shots out of the Lakers in the last two contests (hitting just 30% of them). Sure, we expect that Phil Jackson gets his team to go inside, and they’ll get more buckets that way. The point is that even with Phoenix putting its best defensive foot forward, all four of these games have gone over the total. Both teams are a pretty good bet to shoot around 48%-50%, and the oddsmaker has adjusted the line downward. You know that something’s up when these teams get together, because against everybody else they skewed overwhelmingly to the “under” in the regular season.

THE PLAY: OVER 217.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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BOSTON at ORLANDO
Eastern Conference Finals – Game 5

(Magic -4, Total 187) — [private] I suppose there is a fear that Boston has opened the door for a Magic team that could have found a little momentum, and is “playing ‘em one game at a time,” as they say. There is a very distinct possibility of that. There is more of a possibility, however, that Dwight Howard, who had 32 points and 16 rebounds in Game 4, will have to prove it a little more from the free throw line in this one (he was just 6-for-14 last time out). Aside from Howard, Orlando’s interior defense leaves something to be desired. I watched as Rajon Rondo literally walked across the free throw lane, dribbling the basketball. Unacceptable! Then, there is the “Vince Carter factor,” which tells us that no team with Carter on it have ever come close to winning an NBA championship. The Celtics could be in a position to prolong the validity of that.

THE PLAY: BOSTON +4 **

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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