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BASEBALL — July 31

L.A. ANGELS at MINNESOTA
(Santana vs. Blackburn: Twins -150, Angels +130, Total 10) — Minnesota has looked very much like a team that has corrected itself, winning four straight games and getting back into the thick of things in the AL Central. Can we say Joe Mauer is cooling off a bit, with two-for-15 and one RBI in his last four games? That’s not a cheap statement, is it? Well, Nick Blackburn has cooled off, that’s for sure. After a string of effective starts, he’s let his ERA rise some by allowing 17 runs in less than 16 innings over his last three outings. At the risk of sounding repetitive, Ervin Santana, after pitching beautifully against the A’s on July 16, has done almost the same thing (16 runs, 15-2/3 innings) since then. Yet his team continues to score runs, even with some key people missing. “Small ball” is what they call it.

THE PLAY: L.A. ANGELS (+130) ***

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BASEBALL — July 31

N.Y. YANKEES at CHI. WHITE SOX
(Mitre vs. Richard: Yankees -120, White Sox +100, Total 10.5) — The White Sox won the opener in this series, but it’s a bit of a downer for them that they have scored just 11 times in their last four games. Sergio Mitre made 27 starts for the Marlins two years ago, and opponents hit .303 against him. This year, in just a couple of starts, that average is up to .378. So we’re going to lay a price with him? Sure, I respect that the Yanks have won 11 out of 13, but I’m not buying into it. I’m pretty impressed with Clayton Richard’s back-to-back efforts where he has gone eight innings and given up a single run, and not against anemic teams either (Tampa Bay, Detroit). By the way, in those games he didn’t exactly spread hits all over the place (just nine total). His star could be on the rise.

THE PLAY: CHI. WHITE SOX (Even) **

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BASEBALL — July 31

KANSAS CITY at TAMPA BAY
(Ponson vs. Price: Rays -220, Royals +180, Total 10.5) — It’s interesting that every once in a while, Sidney Ponson seemingly comes up with all the right pitches in a game. The problem is that on three of the four occasions he’s done that, the Royals have lost for him. Still, last time out he had some command against the Rangers, going six scoreless innings before the bullpen threw it away. David Price has gone from being a true wunderkind to another Joba Chamberlain-type, which means you never really know what you’re going to get. He’s been pretty much bombed in four of his last six outings, and in another he wasn’t very good either. We will grant you a couple of things here – that Kansas City is cold (3-13 in their last 16), has a poor record against left-handed starters (13-21), has lost six straight to Tampa Bay and is not a run-scoring bunch (3.95 runs per game). The point is though, Price is far from a bankable starter at this point in time, and are those enough reasons to lay a big number like this with him? Well, maybe, but we’d rather look “over” here, even bucking the recent series trends.

THE PLAY: OVER 10.5 (Even) **

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BASEBALL — July 31

BOSTON at BALTIMORE
(Smoltz vs. Guthrie: Red Sox -125, Orioles +105, Total 10) — Yeah, Jeremy Guthrie’s recent performances have been kind of inconsistent, and that includes a rough 6-2/3 innings against these Red Sox on July 25, but I don’t know that we want to be laying a price on the road with a Boston team that is slumping, has fallen under .500 on the road, and has a guy on the mound (John Smoltz) who has yet to get any momentum rolling, and has surrendered six runs in each of his last two starts, both of which failed to get out of the sixth inning. One of those was a losing effort to these Orioles just five days ago. What this probably adds up to is some runs, considering the Sox have scored eight times in three of their last four games.

THE PLAY: OVER 10 (-105) ***

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BASEBALL — July 31

WASHINGTON at PITTSBURGH
(Lannan vs. Ohlendorf: Nationals -130, PIrates +110, Total 8.0) — What? Washington is a favorite on the road? The worst team is baseball? Yes, they are, because of one reason: John Lannan. When you look at Lannan’s numbers, you can see that he could easily be about 13-3 with another team, instead of 7-7, which is what he is with the 32-70 Nats. He got off to a slow start, but after April 11, you look at what he’s done and he has had only two bad outings since. This guy is a heck of a pitcher, and the team is 9-12 with him on the mound, which is a much better percentage than their overall record. If you are the Pirates, this is the guy you don’t want to face having scored a total of four runs in your last five games. Pittsburgh’s recent deals don’t help them very much.

THE PLAY: WASHINGTON (-130) **

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BASEBALL — July 31

SEATTLE at TEXAS
(Vargas vs. Padilla: Rangers -165, Mariners +145, Total 10.5) — Vicente Padilla’s arm should be well-rested, since he hasn’t pitched since July 17, and all indications are that he is over the swine flu that kept him out of a couple of starts. For the most part, Padilla has been an improved pitcher over the last seven weeks or so, and when he doesn’t do so well his team hasn’t supported him very much. His career ERA against the M’s is 4.03, but in his last two starts against them, he’s not allowed an earned run (13-2/3 innings) and that includes a 7-2 victory on May 5. He also has a 1.61 ERA in his last seven against the M’s. I don’t know that Seattle is any better equipped this time, since it has been nine games since they have put together more than four runs in a game. Padilla’s running count is seven straight starts under the total. Jason Vargas began the season as an “under’ pitcher, but has gone the other way in four of his last five. He did have a pretty solid effort at Arlington on May 12, giving up a single run in five innings.

THE PLAY: UNDER 10.5 (-120) ***

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BASEBALL — July 30

PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO
(Lopez vs. Sanchez: Phillies -115, Giants -105, Total 8.5) — Here’s an interesting statistic: the Phillies have thus far averaged a run and a half more per game than have the Giants. Since his no-hitter, Jonathan Sanchez has given up eight runs in 11 innings, so there is evidence he has gone back to his old permissive self, where he had surrendered 10 runs in nine runs prior to his gem. There is room for Rodrigo Lopez, who has given Philadelphia four starts of reasonable quality, room to work here. The Giants, who got some offensive help with the acquisition of Freddy Sanchez from Pittsburgh, are a sizzling 34-15 at home, which is the best such mark in baseball. However, if you want to play a numbers game like that, consider that the Phils are 31-16 on the road, which is also #1. I see no reason we can’t lay a small number like this.

THE PLAY: PHILADELPHIA (-115) ***

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BASEBALL — July 30

SEATTLE at TEXAS
(Olson vs. Holland: Rangers -170, Mariners +150, Total 10.5) — Garrett Olson hasn’t gone too far in either of his last two starts, and in the last one he went only and inning and a third against Detroit before being yanked following seven earned runs crossing the plate. Seattle has given up ten runs or more in three of its last five games, while Texas has Still, I am not giving Derek Holland the edge here. I don’t like the fact that he doesn’t get that far into games (only 8-2/3 total innings in his last two starts) and rarely pitches well enough for Texas to win. In fact, the Rangers have won only three of his nine starts, and he has given up at least four runs in six of those outings, most of which have been short. Because of Boston slipping, Seattle is not out of the wild card race in the AL.

THE PLAY: SEATTLE (+150) ***