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PRO FOOTBALL — November 1

N.Y. GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA
(Giants -1, Total 45) — One of the league’s most contentious rivalries is renewed. [private] Philadelphia went to East Rutherford last season and won twice, including a 23-11 playoff win that sent them to the NFC title game. Yet, the Giants are usually consistent performers when they go on the road, the debacle at New Orleans notwithstanding. They have won 19 of their last 23 straight-up and covered 17 of of their last 20. That signals some mental toughness on their part; the same kind of mental toughness that is going to help them bounce back from losing consecutive games. The Eagles, who got a little relaxation against a very confused Washington team last week, are in a tough spot because they have had some injury problems on the offensive line, and even though they have kept the same group together for a couple of weeks, Jason Peters, the Pro Bowl tackle they acquired from Buffalo in the off-season, is playing with knee problems. Donovan McNabb has been sacked nine times over the last couple of games, and with this Giant pass rush, they are not going to get any relief. Philly gets some pressure on the passer too (21 sacks) but Eli Manning is much better protected (only six sacks suffered). Both these teams have registered at least one more yard per play than the opposition, but with Bryan Westbrook an iffy proposition because of the concussion he sustained last week, Ne York has to have an edge in the all-important running game.

THE PLAY: N.Y. GIANTS -1 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 1

HOUSTON at BUFFALO
(Texans -3, Total 41) — Buffalo finds itself on a two-game winning streak at the moment.[private] The Bills shouldn’t get too excited, though. They allowed 318 rushing yards to the Jets two weeks ago at the Meadowlands and were outgained 425-167 by Carolina last weekend. In each of those games they were +4 in the turnover category. Will they get so lucky against Houston quarterback Matt Schaub, who has thrown just five interceptions in 249 attempts? Don’t think so. We couldn’t count much either on Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has hit just 21 of 47 passes (with five yards an attempt) in his two appearances. I wonder when Terrell Owens is going to lose all patience, if he hasn’t already. He has caught just six passes for 40 yards over the last two games. Andre Johnson is good to go after suffering a lung contusion last Sunday, giving Schaub his top target, and apparently Gary Kubiak figures that of Steve Slaton can’t run it from scrimmage, he’s going to catch it more (27 grabs on the year). The other news that seems to have everybody happy is that the Texans have suddenly stiffened up against the run, yielding just 194 yards over the last four games. Buffalo is still working with a green offensive line, and safety Donte Whitmer is still out of action with his ankle injury, which is an inviting sight for Schaub.

THE PLAY: HOUSTON -3 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 1

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY
(Packers -3, Total 47.5) — Lots of drama surrounding this one, as Brett Favre returns to the scene of his greatest triumphs. [private] Favre showed us some of his old mistake-prone self last week at Pittsburgh, where an interception AND fumble of his were run back for touchdowns, but other than that the Vikings played more than well enough to score a road win against the defending Super Bowl champs. Favre hit 77% of his throws in the first encounter, while Aaron Rodgers threw for 384 yards. The Packers have enough offense to stay in the game, but Some of the fundamentals will work against them; for instance, the offensive line will likely be missing center Jason Spitz and tackle Chad Clifton, with rookie TJ Lang starting in place of Clifton, and that is very risky considering Minnesota’s hard-charging pass rush (24 sacks). Remember that Rodgers has been sacked 25 times. Adrian Peterson had just 55 yards in the first meeting and is certainly anxious to improve on that against Dom Capers’ 3-4 alignment which is still a work in progress Don’t bet against it. Don’t bet against a healthy number of Packer fans rooting for Favre to do well. Don’t bet against the Vikings either.

THE PLAY: MINNESOTA +3 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 1

SEATTLE at DALLAS
(Cowboys -9.5. Total 46) — Seattle comes out of its bye week looking to get things together. [private] It’s perhaps unfortunate that in that situation, they have dropped 10 of their last 11 against the spread. Last time they visited Dallas, the Seahawks were rocked to the tune of 34-9, with Matt Hasselbeck getting sacked seven times. Despite the week of rest, Seattle must still face injury problems on its offensive line, which is without Walter Jones and will reshuffle itself yet again this week, and on the defense, which will miss middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu. This is the most serious challenge the Seahawks have gotten all year in an opposing ground attack, as the Cowboys have Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice available and averages 5.6 yards a carry. It’s more likely Dallas exploits Seattle’s defensive problems than it is for Julius Jones (3.9 ypc) to pull a “Cedric Benson” against his former teammates. We’re curious what wide receiver Miles Austin will do for an encore after shredding Kansas City and Atlanta for 421 yards the last two games. DeMarcus Ware, who is hurting right now, has still had two sacks in each of the last two games and should take the measure of journeyman Damion McIntosh, who is the FIFTH left tackle Seattle had used this year.

THE PLAY: DALLAS -9.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 1

OAKLAND at SAN DIEGO
(Chargers -16.5, Total 41.5) — San Diego had a scare against Oakland last time they played, [private] Of course, Oakland is playing so bad lately that it is downright scary. In this particular series, the Chargers have covered 11 of the last 13 meetings. JaMarcus Russell’s travails continue. Russell was intercepted twice and lost a fumble before he was yanked in the second quarter against the Jets last week. They’ve really lost their patience with him, but they will not sit down the guy Al Davis spent all that money on for any extended period of time. That’s a problem, but it’s far from the ONLY problem. The Raiders have collapsed against opposition ground attacks, and hit their nadir last week when the Jets stomped on them for 26 first downs and 316 yards rushing. That means even LaDainian Tomlinson (season-high 71 yards last week) may be able to do some business. San Diego is about to begin that part of the season where they usually start coming on a little stronger. And they probably won’t get caught napping after the very close call they got against the Raiders in the season opener, when they had to come back in the fourth quarter to notch a straight-up win. Double-digit favorites have covered 13 out of 17 times going into the weekend, illustrating the widening gap between the “haves” and “have-nots” in this league. Pete Rozelle must be rolling over in his grave!

THE PLAY: SAN DIEGO -16.5 **

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 1

MIAMI at N.Y. JETS
(Jets -3, Total 40) — A quick rematch of a memorable Monday night game.[private] Everyone is aware of what the Jets’ recent history is against the Dolphins. They have covered nine of the last 12 meetings. Most recently, however, it’s been a bit different, as Miami won a 24-17 decision over the Brett Favre-led Jets last December, then staged a dramatic comeback with 21 points in the fourth quarter to win 31-27 on October 12. Rex Ryan was obviously livid, and called it a “complete embarrassment” for his team. The Jets have really come roaring back in the running game, chalking up an insane 634 yards over the last two contests. That was a problem are for the Dolphins the first time around, as the Jets rambled for 138 yards on 30 carries. Since then, Leon Washington has broken his leg, which puts him out for the year, but rookie Shonn Greene got his chance and made the most of it last week, with 144 yards. Miami’s Wildcat went for 110 yards on 16 attempts when these teams previously met. The most important man for the Jets as far as slowing that spread option play, Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kris Jenkins, is out for the season, so that could make the Dolphins more effective on the ground. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez, who’s been intercepted ten times this season, gets to work against a Miami secondary with two rookies at corner – Sean Smith and Vontae Davis – and he should have Jerricho Cotchery back.

THE PLAY: OVER 40 ****

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 1

DENVER at BALTIMORE
(Ravens -3, Total 41.5) — Can the Broncos stay undefeated? [private] Denver has certainly been doing a lot of the fundamental things right, including steering clear of turnovers in the passing game, as Kyle Orton has been intercepted only once. You can;t accuse Denver of beating up on bad teams, as they have scored wins over Dallas and New England, and you can’t claim they haven’t won an important game on the road either, as their victory at San Diego would suggest. However, Baltimore, with its aggressive defense, may be the biggest test yet. The Ravens can make things happen on offense, and the emergence of Ray Rice has been a big part of that. Rice leads the team in rushing (441 yards, 6 ypc) and receiving (33 catches). That has helped them to a 45.5% conversion rate on third down. No doubt there is a big challenge coming from Denver’s stop unit, rejuvenated with the arrival of coordinator Mike Nolan, and which has limited opposing offenses to just 27% on third down and 3.3 yards a rush, and has registered 21 sacks. The Broncos are for real. However, we maintain a lot of faith in coach John Harbaugh to have addressed troublesome issues during the bye week, and don’t forget that Baltimore’s three defeats have come by a total of 11 points, so they could easily be 5-1 by this time.

THE PLAY: BALTIMORE -3 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 1

SAN FRANCISCO at INDIANAPOLIS
(Colts -13, Total 44.5) — Tough times in the Bay Area lately. [private] The Niners have indeed been burned by Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub in their last two games, and there is no one better to expose weaknesses in a secondary quite like Peyton Manning. But San Francisco has shown better against capable passers this season, and certainly should be able to limit what Manning can do in terms of mixing the run and the pass (3.3 ypc allowed). Frank Gore ought to be better in his second week since returning from injury. Alex Smith (3 TD passes last week in second half) is healthier and more mature, and adds something to what the 49ers can do offensively, where Shawn Hill didn’t. Michael Crabtree will appreciate his re-insertion back into the starting lineup, and Smith seemed to make a real connection with tight end Vernon Davis, who was in limbo in Mike Martz’s offense last year. Under Mike Singletary, the Niners are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog, so they are definitely known as a “tough out.”

THE PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO +13 **

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 1

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE
(Titans -3, Total 44.5) — It’s been an eventful couple of weeks for the Tennessee Titans. [private] First they get absolutely humiliated by the New England Patriots with a 59-0 loss. Then Jeff Fisher wears a Peyton Manning jersey at a charity event, saying that he “wanted to feel like a winner.” Then owner Bud Adams orders Fisher to start Vince Young at quarterback, which is exactly what is happening here. The Titans are 0-6, but had the best record in football in the 2008 regular season, and if there is any time for this team’s pride to come out, it’s right here. Tennessee has actually defended the run pretty well (3.4 ypc, 95 ypg), which will present problems for a Jacksonville offense that needs to establish the ground attack first. The secondary, which has been a huge problem, could now have Cortland Finnegan and Vincent Fuller in the lineup at the same time, and that could make a world of difference. With Young back under center, that will add the element of diversity and unpredictability that makes this team with non-threatening receivers hard to defend. Let’s watch the Titans exorcise some demons.

THE PLAY: TENNESSEE -3 ****

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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