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PRO FOOTBALL — November 30

NEW ENGLAND at NEW ORLEANS
(Saints -1.5, Total 57) — This may be the most high-profile Monday night game since, well, since Brett Favre played against the Packers earlier in the year. [private] New Orleans, with 36.9 points a game, is threatening New England’s record for most points in a season. The Pats are averaging 37.2 ppg over their last five, and did a nice rebound from the heart-breaking loss to Indianapolis when they beat the Jets last week. For Tom Brady, it’s been five straight games where he’s thrown for at least 300 yards, and his favorite target has been Wes Welker, who’s got 53 catches in those last five games (including 15 against the Jets). If the Saints try to bring a lot of pressure on Brady, he has the perfect outlet to throw it to, quickly, and there is the possibility of exploiting a New Orleans secondary that has some injury problems. Drew Brees, with 68% completions and 22 touchdown passes, is always tough, but the presence of a running game (ranked fifth in the NFL) makes him even tougher. Both defenses have obviously proven to be very capable, but in the NFL these days, with the passing rules the way they are, great offense almost always beats good defense. These are two of the three best quarterbacks currently operating in the NFL, and it is altogether possible that it is a shootout regardless of who wins. Take note that the Saints have played 14 of their last 18 in the Superdome over the total.

THE PLAY: OVER 57 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 29

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA
(Falcons -12, Total 46) — The Bucs are going through a few growing pains with their rookie quarterback. [private] That’s what happens eventually, as Josh Freeman threw three interceptions against the Saints last week. Still, there is no question that Tampa Bay feels better about his chances of winning with the gutsy rookie at the controls. here’s the thing, though – will that work against an Atlanta team that has won and covered every game at the Georgia Dome this year, and to boot, has covered eight of the last nine times after a straight-up loss? The Falcons have allowed 4.5 yards a rush, and we know that Tampa Bay, on any given Sunday, can work something in its ground game with Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward. But the offensive line is, at best, a work in progress. Michael Turner, who was torrid before going out with an ankle injury, will return this week, as will Jerious Norwood, and added to Jason Snelling, who had 76 yards in relief of Turner last week, this will be a run game with some staying power, which is just the way Mike Smith wants it. Atlanta is desperate right now to stay in the playoff race, having lost four of its last five games, but to much better competition than this.

THE PLAY: ATLANTA -12 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 29

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE
(Ravens -2.5) — Could both of these clubs possibly miss the post-season? [private] Baltimore has had some difficulties scoring, with 38 points in the last three games. Joe Flacco has gone without a touchdown pass during that period. Still, in a game between two teams looking up at Cincinnati in the AFC North, we probably have to side with the team with more experience at the quarterback position. That would normally be the Steelers, with Ben Roethlisberger. But Big Ben is out with the after-effects of his concussion, and Dennis Dixon gets his first NFL start at quarterback. Dixon was a standout at the University of Oregon, and he’s got great mobility, which stems from his days running Chip Kelly’s spread offense. But he can’t possibly have the savvy Roethlisberger possessed in eluding enemy pass rushes, and he could be taught a painful lesson by Ray Lewis & Co. The Ravens (3.5 ypc allowed) might be able to overplay the run, as we think that’s where Pittsburgh is going to place its emphasis.

THE PLAY: BALTIMORE +2.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 29

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA
(Vikings -10.5, Total 47) — This is the first of two meetings between these NFC North rivals. [private] Jay Cutler is operating with no confidence right now. He’s making bad throws when his receivers are open, and sometimes his receivers can’t make hot reads when the play is in progress. This isn’t what he had in Denver. The result – 18 interceptions to lead the league. He’ll have to hurry up against the Minnesota pass rush (36 sacks) and we wonder whether left tackle Orlando Pace, who can’t do what he used to, can handle Jared Allen (10.5 of those sacks), and Matt Forte still hasn’t worked up any momentum in the backfield (2.9 ypc in the last six games). As we’ve stated in the past, one of the reasons Brett Favre has so many TD passes (21) and so few interceptions (three) is because he has Adrian Peterson (99 yards) at his disposal. The Bears have allowed a touchdown on the opening drive in five of their ten games. That’s one thing they can’t afford to do – fall behind from the start against the Vikes, who average 30.6 points a game.

THE PLAY: MINNESOTA -10.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 29

ARIZONA at TENNESSEE
(Titans -2, Total 45) — [private] Kurt Warner, listed as questionable in this game, will play a week after suffering a concussion. He has by far the better set of receivers in this game, led by the estimable Larry Fitzgerald (71 catches). Tim Hightower (773 combined rushing/receiving yards) is a very relevant piece of the offense, a key factor in Arizona winning six of its last seven games. And the Cardinals, it should be known, are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road. However, we’re not sure we’re ready to get off the Titans’ bandwagon quite yet. Jeff Fisher’s may not realize they’re out of the playoff race, because this team that won ten straight games at one point last season thinks they can do it again. Vince Young’s presence gives the Tennessee offense infinitely more flexibility, and he’s been sacked only once thus far. Chris Johnson has simply been superhuman (1242 yards, 6.2 ypc) and the Titans have been winning since they’re giving him more chances to touch the ball. The secondary is healthier and tougher now, and has Vincent Fuller back in action. With a +25 sack ratio and a rushing average almost a yard better than its opponents, Tennessee rates more respect than it’s been given, even after people have seen the four-game winning streak. Don’t hold the overall season stats against them.

THE PLAY: TENNESSEE -2 ****

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 29

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA
(Eagles -9.5, Total 40.5) — Washington hopes for a better result in this rematch. [private] The Eagles hardly ran wild on the Redskins last time out, gaining just 262 yards in their 27-17 win at FedEx Field. But you know, that;s really been the story with the Washington defense, whose proficiency has been overlooked amid the stories regarding the inability of the offense to score points. The ‘Skins have allowed only 162 passing yards a game, which is the lowest figure in the NFL by 21 yards, and this secondary won’t let DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin (or Brett Celek) get out of hand. And they will get tougher against the run if Albert Haynesworth, even at 50%, can play with his bad ankle. Brian Westbrook remains out after his concussion, and wisely so, and he makes this offense far less dynamic. Meanwhile, the Redskin offense, which still has Sherman Lewis making the calls for lame duck coach Jim Zorn, will never be described as “dynamic.” Washington won’t have Clinton Portis or Ladell Betts for this one, and won’t have Chris Cooley either; they went back to their non-offensive ways last week against Dallas, and Jason Campbell has suffered 29 sacks. If they are going to be competitive, it will have to be with defense.

THE PLAY: UNDER 40.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 29

CAROLINA at N.Y. JETS
(Jets -3.5, Total 41.5) — These two teams are more or less land-locked, and that’s just the way they want it. [private] It’s certainly no secret that Rex Ryan considers his running game to be critical, and that is to protect rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez as much as anything else. We respect what Thomas Jones can do. However, a quick look at the Jets reveals that since Leon Washington went down with an injury, this ground attack has been much less dynamic. In fact, the Jets have had just 341 yards in the last three games, compared to 316 in that game against Oakland where Washington got hurt. When you don’t have to prepare for him, it’s different. Meanwhile, Carolina has 819 rushing yards over the last four weeks, and New York is a little easier to run on since losing Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kris Jenkins (former Panther). There’s been a reversal in fortunes for these clubs, as Carolina is now at least on the outskirts of the wild card race in the NFC. The turnover situation has changed since earlier in the season too – Jake Delhomme has thrown just one interception in his last four games after tossing 13 in the first six games, while Mark Sanchez has thrown six TD’s and 14 picks in the last seven.

THE PLAY: CAROLINA +3.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO FOOTBALL — November 29

MIAMI at BUFFALO
(Dolphins -3, Total 39) — The Dolphins try to make it three wins in a row, while the Bills look to snap a three-game losing streak. [private] Miami doesn’t appear to be the kind of team with enough explosiveness on offense to pull away from a lot of opponents. The thing is, at least the are a team with functioning parts – a running attack that works (Ricky Williams had 119 yards as the go-to back last week), a quarterback who is not giving the ball away at will (only one interception in the last four games), and a pass rush that can at least find the quarterback, which in this case is going to be Ryan Fitzpatrick (52%, 3 TD’s, 6 INT’s). They are also well-coached, which is something that can’t be said about the Bills, who are with an interim mentor (Perry Fewell) and some assistants that are ready to jump ship because they didn’t get the job. Now that Mike Shanahan and others are being interviewed, it doesn’t help their morale any. Terrell Owens and Lee Evans have severely under-achieved, and in a way that is a function of the shaky QB situation. In their last eight games, the Bulls have not scored more than 20 points. Buffalo has covered only one of its last nine games at home.

THE PLAY: MIAMI -3 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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