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PRO FOOTBALL — February 7

NEW ORLEANS vs. INDIANAPOLIS
@ Miami Gardens, FL
(Colts -5, Total 57) — [private] It certainly looks like the Saints maybe getting some value in this line, doesn’t it? After all, it would be hard to say when the playoffs started that they would be a five-point underdog on a neutral field. The question, perhaps, is whether the perception of value matters when the Colts have the one player who can seemingly make more things happen than anyone else in the NFL.

Peyton Manning has obviously been on this Super Bowl road before, and this season he’s been more accurate than ever, completing 68.8% of his passes, and has thrown for the most yards since his monstrous 2004 campaign. On the other side, Drew Brees, had a great touchdown-interception ratio of better than three to one, and remember that he’s the one who threw for over 5000 yards last year. This, of course, is the first Super Bowl for him, and almost everyone on the Saints roster.

There are interesting fundamental advantages for the Saints, that’s for sure. For example, New Orleans is most certainly the better team when it comes to running the football, as it averages 4.5 yards a carry and has some depth back there, with Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell. The Colts simply haven’t run very well (3.5 ypc), and topping the hundred-yard mark against the Jets was truly considered a big accomplishment. Without safety Bob Sanders, Indianapolis also allowed 4.3 yards a carry on the season, so if either team is going to get some offensive balance, it’s going to be the Saints. The Colts’ defensive style, which is predicated on keeping the action in front of them rather than getting beat deep, should be to Brees’ liking as well, as he is best at throwing the short, accurate pass.

The quarterbacks could have a lot of time to throw. New Orleans lost Charles Grant with a biceps injury in the final regular season game (of course, they still have Will Smith). The Colts were still waiting to see if Dwight Freeney, with a severe ankle injury, can play. However, even if he does go, we doubt he’ll be all that effective. That should make for a net gain for New Orleans, which can get more people into the secondary if they don’t have to worry about “chipping” a guy like Freeney. Both teams protect the passer very well; both quarterbacks are among the best in the business when it comes to handling blitzes, and both can pick apart any defense with time to operate. The Saints may try to bully Manning the way they did Brett Favre in the NFC title game, but with all due respect to Favre, he’s not Manning. And let’s not forget – the Saints did not sack Favre.

Let’s expand on defense for a moment. When it came to points allowed, Indianapolis ranked 8th best in the NFL, and they are the “bend but not break” team, right? Still, they have allowed some of the more capable quarterbacks to move the ball up and down the field on them, and they have sustained enough injuries in the secondary (Sanders and Marlon Jackson among them) that they have concerns about depth. They did not face the biggest challenge in the post-season, from the Ravens and Jets, who have more pedestrian passing attacks than New Orleans. As for the Saints, they can be riddled in the secondary if they have to put five and six defenders back there, and Manning, whose second-half exploits forced the Jets to dip into their bench, is just the guy to exploit that kind of thing.

We know that New Orleans has gotten that “opportunistic” label, having scored eight defensive touchdowns (three of them by Darren Sharper), which is twice as much as anyone else. Is Manning going to afford them those opportunities?

These are rather unique circumstances in Super Bowl history, in that these teams have gotten here overwhelmingly on the basis of their offensive prowess, and almost in spite of the holes that both have in their defenses. As far as the side is concerned, the Colts may not represent great value in the number but do have the most indomitable element in this game, and he wears #18. With an extra week to get ready, I can see him taking advantage of this 4-3 defensive scheme, and more often than not, having more people into their routes than the Saints can cover (including the emerging Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, each of which had over 100 yards in the AFC title game).

Don’t expect many run-based, sustained drives in this one. The effect of each pass rush will be minimal. This is one of those games that won’t be over until it is really over, so whichever team is trailing will surely go down swinging. This is the highest total ever posted for a Super Bowl, but each team is fully capable of contributing to exceeding it.

THE PLAYS:

OVER 57 ****
INDIANAPOLIS -200 **
INDIANAPOLIS -5 *
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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