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PRO BASKETBALL — April 30

DENVER at UTAH
Western Conference Playoffs – Game 6

(Jazz -6.5, Total 215) — [private] The story here is that Denver has not been able to shut down the Jazz, even a Jazz team that has been missing two of its starters (Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko). Carlos Boozer has shot 56% in the series. Deron Williams has shot almost 51% so far (54% from beyond the arc), with an assist-turnover ratio of better than 3.6-to-1 and 28 points a game. Utah has been 53% or better in three of the five games. The Nuggets almost rolled over in the last game before waking up and forcing Game 6. They do not have enough heart to beat a Utah team that is now 28-13-2 ATS at home this season. Note that center Nene Hilario is out for Denver.

THE PLAY: UTAH -6.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — April 30

L.A. LAKERS at OKLAHOMA CITY
Western Conference Playoffs – Game 6

(Thunder -1.5, Total 194.5) — [private] This series has gone to three overs in a row, and part of that involves the numbers that have been set, but we are still tempted to go in another direction. What we like about Oklahoma City is the way the Thunder has simply shut the Lakers down in the last three visits to the Ford Center, holding the world champions to 87 points a game. Kobe Bryant didn’t score too much in the last game (39% shooting in this series) but he has committed himself to guarding Russell Westbrook all he can, and Westbrook has been the only Thunder player to shoot well in these five games. Remember, Oklahoma City hasn’t done better than 41% yet.

THE PLAY: UNDER 194.5 **

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — April 28

UTAH at DENVER
Western Conference Playoffs – Game 5

(Nuggets -7, Total 216) — [private] Defense is supposed to get tougher in the playoffs, but Utah, which shot 49.1% (second best in the NBA) has raised that figure in the post-season, with 51.8% thus far. In only one of the four games has a team failed to score 100 points, which gives you an idea of the pace of this series. If you are of the opinion that Denver is going to put forth a desperate effort in this do-or-die game, you’d be looking for them to impose their will at home, where they have averaged 110 points a game and 118.5 in the first two games.

THE PLAY: OVER 216 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — April 26

PORTLAND at PHOENIX
Wetsern Conference Playoffs – Game 5

(Suns -7, Total 204.5) — [private] This series is tied at 2-2, and Brandon Roy, who just came off knee surgery, is back in action for the Blazers, almost miraculously, to lend moral support. He also shot four of ten from the field, and we need to point out that he is now shooting just 37% against Phoenix for the season. When the Suns can run, they can leave a lot of distance between themselves and thin opponents like this, which is exactly why Nate McMillan is simply not going to allow his team to get into a fastbreak contest. They will walk it down, milk the clock, and keep this game in doubt until the final quarter if they can. Because Phoenix has allowed that to happen more than they should, they will also make it four “unders” out of five in this series.

THE PLAY: UNDER 204.5 **

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — April 26

ATLANTA at MILWAUKEE
Eastern Conference Playoffs – Game 4

(Hawks -2, Total 189) — [private] Milwaukee went wild in Game 3 of this series, making ten three-pointers and shooting 51%, while holding the Hawks to just 39%. However, we know that the Bucks have had a difficult time putting together solid back-to-back shooting performances, and that out-rebounding the Hawks with the likes of Kurt Thomas and Dan Gadzuric (yikes!) playing in the middle is not going to be an everyday thing. This is a go-with vs. go-with proposition, because the Bucks have been very strong (27-16 ATS) as a dog, while Atlanta wins money as a favorite (38-27 ATS). The “over” continues to be the way to go when these teams meet, however (ten of last 11 games).

THE PLAY: OVER 189 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — April 25

DENVER at UTAH
Western Conference Playoffs – Game 4

(Jazz -2.5, Total 212.5) — [private] Utah is so thin right now that it is almost a shocker that the Jazz has been able to win two straight games after dropping the first one to Denver by double digits. maybe it is a tale of two coaches – one of them, Adrian Dantley, has been thrown into the fray on relatively short notice, replacing George Karl. Then there is Jerry Sloan, an outstanding coach for so long, who has never won a title, who is getting the most out of what amounts to a rotation of seven players, only five of whom had any experience coming into this season. Fortunately their two reserves are Paul Millsap, who could start at power forward for a lot of teams, and Kyle Korver, a legitimate three-point threat who had the highest plus/minus total of any player in Game 3 (+22). Utah is still shooting well and is 27-13-2 ATS at home this season. They smell blood.

THE PLAY: UTAH -2.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — April 25

BOSTON at MIAMI
Eastern Conference Playoffs – Game 4

(Heat -1.5, Total 186) — [private] Would you like to know how snake-bitten Miami is? The heat got 34 points from Dwyane Wade, shot almost 51% from the field, and even got 39 points out of its bench, yet they still could not beat the Celtics on their own home floor. I guess you’ve got to keep in mind that Miami is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games, and that the Celtics really have their number, having won 14 of the last 15 meetings straight-up. Can the Heat come up with a big-time threat aside from Wade? That is a legitimate question. It is going to be hard to do on the inside, because of the presence of Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins (no points but 12 rebounds in Game 3). You don’t necessarily want to underestimate the heat, especially in this “pride” game, but unless the aging Celts have resolved to roll over and forsake the additional rest they could get, they are a value getting points.

THE PLAY: BOSTON +1.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — April 22

L.A. LAKERS at OKLAHOMA CITY

(Thunder -4, Total 192.5) — [private] Remember that sometimes it is a bit easier to guard the Thunder with Kevin Durant being such a dominant part of the offense, unless he can get several other teammates involved. Yes, the presence of rookie center Serge Ibaka (seven blocks in Game 2) is a great positive for Oklahoma City. But the Lakers have a bitter memory of their last rip to the Sooner State, when they fell behind by 33 points at the end of three quarters, in a game where Kobe Bryant had nine turnovers, and the Lakers stopped neither Durant (26) nor Russell Westbrook (23). The antenna of the world champions will be “up” for this one, and against such a young team, it’s always a good idea to take the available points.

THE PLAY: L.A. LAKERS +4 ****

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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