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PRO BASKETBALL — May 27

PHOENIX at L.A. LAKERS
Western Conference Finals – Game 5

(Lakers -7.5, Total 217.5) — [private] Phoenix was the best shooting team in the NBA this season, yet the Lakers have had the shooting edge (in percentage terms) in each of the four games. This comes even as the Suns introduced their new defensive approach, which forced 60 three-point shots out of the Lakers in the last two contests (hitting just 30% of them). Sure, we expect that Phil Jackson gets his team to go inside, and they’ll get more buckets that way. The point is that even with Phoenix putting its best defensive foot forward, all four of these games have gone over the total. Both teams are a pretty good bet to shoot around 48%-50%, and the oddsmaker has adjusted the line downward. You know that something’s up when these teams get together, because against everybody else they skewed overwhelmingly to the “under” in the regular season.

THE PLAY: OVER 217.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — May 26

BOSTON at ORLANDO
Eastern Conference Finals – Game 5

(Magic -4, Total 187) — [private] I suppose there is a fear that Boston has opened the door for a Magic team that could have found a little momentum, and is “playing ‘em one game at a time,” as they say. There is a very distinct possibility of that. There is more of a possibility, however, that Dwight Howard, who had 32 points and 16 rebounds in Game 4, will have to prove it a little more from the free throw line in this one (he was just 6-for-14 last time out). Aside from Howard, Orlando’s interior defense leaves something to be desired. I watched as Rajon Rondo literally walked across the free throw lane, dribbling the basketball. Unacceptable! Then, there is the “Vince Carter factor,” which tells us that no team with Carter on it have ever come close to winning an NBA championship. The Celtics could be in a position to prolong the validity of that.

THE PLAY: BOSTON +4 **

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — May 25

L.A. LAKERS at PHOENIX
Western Conference Finals – Game 4

(Lakers -2, Total 220) — [private] Phoenix may have thrown a bit of a surprise into the Lakers on Sunday when they came out with a zone defense. That served to cut down passing lanes into the paint, forced the Lakers to take a lot of perimeter shots, where they hit just nine of 32 shots from three-point range. Even with that surprising defensive performance, this game still went over the total. The Lakers are still going to be a hard team to stop, and in fact they did make 48% of their shots. Phoenix’s bench shot just 14% in Sunday night’s game, and clearly that’s going to improve. Both teams have played six of their last seven games over the total, and why should we not expect for that trend to continue?

THE PLAY: OVER 220 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — May 23

L.A. LAKERS at PHOENIX
Western Conference Finals – Game 3

(Suns -1, Total 219) — [private] When you watch these games, you just can’t help wondering whether the Phoenix Suns can ever stop the Los Angeles Lakers. Kobe Bryant turned into a playmaker last time out, dishing 13 assists though he had just 21 points, and now we know the Lakers can win big like that. Los Angels has now shot 58% in the series, and scored 110 or more points in six of the last nine meetings. Amare Stoudamire has had an impossible time covering Pau Gasol and that is likely to continue. Phoenix may bring forth a big effort at home, but if they do, it’s much more likely to happen as a result of the running philosophy working rather than an overabundance of stops.

THE PLAY: OVER 219 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — May 18

BOSTON at ORLANDO
Eastern Conference Finals – Game 2

(Magic -7, Total 189) — [private] When you look at how Orlando played in Game 1, it’s a wonder they only lost by four points. The front line shot just 25%, and the team committed 18 turnovers, which winning teams don’t do too often. Yet they came back to make a game of it in the fourth quarter and could carry some momentum into this one. Nothing to disparage what Boston did, because the Celtics are playing the kind of defense, it seems, that carries them to a championship two seasons ago, but I am not expecting that Dwight Howard is going to make just three field goals again, or that Rashard Lewis is going to be 0-for-6 from three -point range. Stan Van Gundy deserves all the respect in the world as a coach, and I just don’t expect those gaffes are going to be repeated, especially at home.

THE PLAY: ORLANDO -7 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — May 10

L.A. LAKERS at UTAH
Western Conference Semi-Finals – Game 4

(Jazz -3.5, Total 207) — [private] The Lakers did it with defense in their series win over Oklahoma City. In this one they are accomplishing more with offense. They have shot a little over 50% for the series, and as a result, all three games have gone over the total. In this particular game, though, we can probably count on a special effort from the Jazz, who are prouder and more disciplined than, say, the Atlanta Hawks, who were also trying to stave off elimination against Orlando. They’re still 29-14-2 ATS at home, and they still have the capacity to shoot better than 50%. Furthermore, you could see the positive effect of having two-way player Andrei Kirilenko back in the rotation, and perhaps he can play more minutes on Monday. Kyle Korver was given some room to move against the Lakers in Game 3, and he hit all five of his three-point attempts. A 54% shooter from downtown in the regular season, expect that he’ll be utilized more. Utah lives to play another day.

THE PLAY: UTAH -3.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — May 10

ORLANDO at ATLANTA
Eastern Conference Semi-Finals – Game 4

(Magic -6.5, Total 191.5) — [private] It is entirely conceivable that Atlanta puts forth a last-gasp, desperate effort to keep going here. But you really couldn’t tell anything about a sense of urgency from Saturday’s absolute non-effort, where the Hawks got off to a poor start and lost by 30 points. Joe Johnson has shot just 31% from the field in this series, and beyond Jamal Crawford, Atlanta is getting nothing off the bench on offense. It is true that Orlando has shot better than 50% in each of the three games in this series thus far. However, when you consider that Atlanta has scored just 82 points a game in the last nine meetings, with one “explosion” that almost reached 100 points, you have to wonder how the total is going to creep above this number.

THE PLAY: UNDER 191.5 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — May 9

PHOENIX at SAN ANTONIO
Western Conference Semi-Finals – Game 4

(Spurs -3.5, Total 207) — [private] The way Phoenix came from 18 points down to completely blow past San Antonio in Game 3 has to be very discouraging for the Spurs, who had this team right where they wanted them. The Suns did most of their damage with the second unit, which is even more discouraging. San Antonio can probably be counted on for a big effort in trying to stay alive, and they’ve got enough pride to come out with some fire, but if recent meetings are any indication, if they are going to get it done they are going to have to outscore the Suns, who have now averaged close to 112 points in the last six encounters (scoring no less than 110 points each time). It’s pretty clear by now that not only are the Spurs ill-equipped to deal with the Suns when they step up the pace, they also have their share of problems in the half-court setting as well.

THE PLAY: OVER 207 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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PRO BASKETBALL — May 9

CLEVELAND at BOSTON
Eastern Conference Semi-Finals – Game 4

(Cavs -1, Total 196.5) — [private] The way I see it, the Celtics had their opportunity to really get a leg up in this series against a #1 conference seed, having stifled them in Game 2 and getting a weakened LeBron James in their own building. But Boston stood around while LeBron ran wild in the very first quarter in Game 3, scoring 21 of his 38 points, and it was all over at that point. The Celtics proved to be not good enough to get the job done, and the Cavs can be expected to strengthen their stranglehold. Paul Pierce has had a horrible series, hitting just 31% of his shots, and it is clear that his efforts at slowing James have affected his offensive game.

THE PLAY: CLEVELAND -1 **

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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